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Machinery industry in China: the rapid growth and stability, but face structural differentiation

Thursday, 01 Jul 2010
In the rapid growth of fixed asset investment and driven by manufacturing and mechanical industry is showing continued rapid growth. 2010 January to April, industrial output value machinery industry 4.078773 trillion yuan, up 40.43 percent; completion of the sale value of 3.981496 trillion yuan, up 41.47%. Industry export growth also recovered to normal levels, 1-April trade export 398.7 billion yuan,

 

An increase of 30.4%, higher than in March increased by 4 percentage points, the basic trend of the export recovery uncertain. Machinery industry in the first half to keep sales booming, and is expected in the second half will remain in the high, growth may be slightly down, we determine annual revenue growth in the industry for more than 35%, profit growth and income less the same.

 

Faced with high pressure machinery, machine tools and other growth to be relatively stable. Jan-Apr machinery sub-sectors in the growth rate of more than 40% have engineering machinery industry, machine tool industry and Machine Components Industry, in which the momentum is still the best construction machinery industry, the cumulative growth rate of 52.3%, compared with 1 - March increase of 3 percentage points; machine tools, basic parts from January to April growth rate were 41.9% and 40.5%. We believe that because the state regulatory efforts to increase the real estate industry, some engineering machinery products are not optimistic about future growth prospects, so the growth rate of construction machinery in 2010 will show a high to low, estimated annual growth rate of 25-30% sectors. Machine tools and basic items such as the growth of strong stability.

 

Integration of military assets in the field is entering full swing phase. China Aviation Industry Group's capital in major military operations in the forefront of the Group, the operation of the helicopter's potential capital investment opportunities. We focus on Aerospace Science and Technology Group in the satellite area and the integration of electronics and weapons industry groups in the field of integrated optoelectronics.

 

Considering the international market valuation, and our engineering machinery, machine tools and other key sub-sectors of the valuation analysis, we maintain the machinery industry "cautious recommendation" rating, focusing Kunming Machine Tool, Zoomlion, Xugong companies . Listed by military assets into the company's potential for, and the continued growth of the industry is expected to clear, we maintain the military's "recommended" rating, focusing on new Huaguang, aerospace electronics, Chinese satellites.